Roubini , reduccion o destruccion?

[Flip]

Roubini nos viene a decir hoy,


1) el coste de una ruptura es tremendamente alto
2) el coste de una ruptura en 1-2 años puede ser mayor

Escenario 1 , si España e italia son solventes pero tiene falta de liquidez , la compra de bonos  y las progresivas inyecciones de liquidez pueden dar el tiempo suficiente para que a traves de un programa de ajuste se vuelva a retomar la senda de la competitividad y el crecimiento
Unido todo con una estrategia de consolidacion bancararia.

La eu economica y monetaria seria viable

Escenario 2
Las necesitades de inyeccion via bonos y liquidez podrian alcanzar un trillon de euros, y varios
Si despues de todo no se resolviesen los problemas de solvencia , si la solvencia de los paises perifericos siguiese asi tras esta inyeccion, podrian ser catastrofico, los balances del bce destruidos y una union economica resuleta..

Os pregunto:
Creeis que España podria ser solvente en esta situacion? Nos llevamos la mitad de la liquidez de toda europa?

Salvar los muebles mejor que perderlo todo?

Muchas voces claman la reduccion de la zona monetaria, muchas señales de que no queda mucho tiempo...

Que opiniais?


Early Retirement for the Eurozone?
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CommentsNEW YORK – Whether the eurozone is viable or not remains an open question. But what if a breakup can only be postponed, not avoided? If so, delaying the inevitable would merely make the endgame worse – much worse.
Illustration by Paul Lachine
CommentsGermany increasingly recognizes that if the adjustment needed to restore growth, competitiveness, and debt sustainability in the eurozone’s periphery comes through austerity and internal devaluation rather than debt restructuring and exit (leading to the reintroduction of sharply depreciated national currencies), the cost will most likely be trillions of euros. Indeed, sufficient official financing will be needed to allow cross-border and even domestic investors to exit. As investors reduce their exposure to the eurozone periphery’s sovereigns, banks, and corporations, both flow and stock imbalances will need to be financed. The adjustment process will take many years, and, until policy credibility is fully restored, capital flight will continue, requiring massive amounts of official finance.
CommentsUntil recently, such official finance came from fiscal authorities (the European Financial Stability Facility, soon to be the European Stability Mechanism) and the International Monetary Fund. But, increasingly, official financing is coming from the European Central Bank – first with bond purchases, and then with liquidity support to banks and the resulting buildup of balances within the eurozone’s Target2 payment system. With political constraints in Germany and elsewhere preventing further strengthening of fiscally-based firewalls, the ECB now plans to provide another round of large-scale financing to Spain and Italy (with more bond purchases).
CommentsThus, Germany and the eurozone core have increasingly outsourced official financing of the eurozone’s distressed members to the ECB. If Italy and Spain are illiquid but solvent, and large-scale financing provides enough time for austerity and economic reforms to restore debt sustainability, competitiveness, and growth, the current strategy will work and the eurozone will survive.
CommentsIn the process, some form of fiscal and banking union may also emerge, together with some progress on political integration. But, however important the fiscal and banking union elements of this process may be, the key is whether large-scale financing and gradual adjustments can restore sustainable growth in time. This will require considerable patience from governments and publics in the core and periphery alike – in the former to maintain large-scale financing, and in the latter to avoid a social and political backlash against years of painful contraction and loss of welfare.
CommentsIs this scenario plausible? Just consider what must be overcome: economic divergence and deepening recessions; irreversible balkanization of the banking system and financial markets; unsustainable debt burdens for public and private agents; daunting growth and balance-sheet costs in countries that pursue internal devaluation and deflation to restore competitiveness; asymmetrical adjustment, with moral-hazard risks in the core and insufficient financing in the periphery fueling incompatible political dynamics; fickle and impatient markets and investors; austerity fatigue in the periphery and bailout fatigue in the core; the absence of conditions for an optimal currency area; and serious difficulties in achieving full fiscal, banking, economic, and political union.
CommentsIf a gradual process of disintegration eventually makes a eurozone breakup unavoidable, the path chosen by Germany and the ECB – large-scale financing for the eurozone periphery – would destroy the core central banks’ balance sheets. Worse still, massive losses resulting from the materialization of credit risk might jeopardize core eurozone economies’ debt sustainability, placing the survival of the European Union itself in question. In that case, surely an “orderly divorce” now is preferable to a messy split down the line.
CommentsOf course, a breakup now would be very costly, requiring an international debt conference to restructure the periphery’s debts and the core’s claims. But breaking up earlier could allow the survival of the single market and of the EU. A futile attempt to avoid a breakup for a year or two – after wasting trillions of euros in additional official financing by the core – would mean a disorderly end, including the destruction of the single market, owing to the introduction of protectionist policies on a massive scale. So, if a breakup is unavoidable, delaying it implies much higher costs.
CommentsBut politics in the eurozone does not permit consideration of an early breakup. Germany and the ECB are relying on large-scale liquidity to buy time to allow the adjustments necessary to restore growth and debt sustainability. And, despite the huge risk implied if a breakup eventually occurs, this remains the strategy to which most of the players in the eurozone are committed. Only time will tell whether betting the house to save the garage was the right move

[gabriel]

Mi opinión ya la conocéis. Telegráficamente y sin desarrollar argumentos:

- España y 4 más son completamente insolventes si incluimos al sector privado, y probablemente otros países menores también.

- el gasto en "rescates" no es un coste para financiar a los periféricos el tiempo de ajustar sus economías, sino una compra de tiempo para rescatar los bancos del centro socializando pérdidas, y para que los inversores privados salgan por piernas de la periferia.

- cuando ya no quede margen político para sostener más tiempo el euro (debido al sufrimiento y descontento de la población) habrá que dejar caer este invento que creo Europa para cargarse al dólar, pero que salió rana por culpa de una burbuja de crédito gestada en EEUU en la huída hacia adelante en la que llevan estos enfrascados desde 1971.

- el euro se creó imperfecto pensando que los desequilibrios, en condiciones económicas normales, llevaría a la integración política y fiscal definitiva, pero la burbuja de Greenspan se ha llevado todo por delante exacerbando los desajustes en tiempo récord.

- no tardaremos en oír hablar de refundar la Unión Europea, que con las monedas nacionales funcionará mejor.